Regime
Tactical / Cautious Bullish
Mixed signals necessitate caution, with some bullish trends supported by liquidity and ETF inflows but risks from elevated liquidations and macro influences.
Trader Workspace
Market Regime
Cycle phase, valuation models, price context, and the highest-priority market signals.
Largest 24h shift
Changed
BTC down 1.8%
Immediate alert
Watch
Long liquidation pocket presents downside risk.
Main Sections
The dashboard is organized directly from the spreadsheet template.
Market Regime
Cautious bullishness due to rising ETF inflows and stable liquidity, but watch for macro impacts.
Primary stance
Tactical / cautious bullish
Open page
Technical Analysis
21W SMA supports bullish trend, but elevated ETH open interest signals potential risk.
Core trend model
21 week SMA
Open page
Equities Monitor
Focus on MSTR and COIN as key equity proxies; monitor correlation to crypto.
Focus basket
MSTR / COIN / miners
Open page
Macro
Stable DXY at 118.1; liquidity looks supportive. Watch macro releases.
Main macro driver
DXY / Global M2
Open page
Flows
BTC ETF inflows remain a positive backdrop despite overall market caution.
Main flow input
BTC ETF flows
Open page
Derivatives
Funding rates and IV are stable; monitor for potential stress in open interest.
Main derivatives input
Funding / IV / OI
Open page
Onchain Data
Cost basis models indicate healthy cycles, but on-chain signals are mixed.
Main onchain lens
Cost basis and MVRV
Open page
Ask DashBeta
Ongoing assessment of trader sentiment needed in a mixed market.
Query mode
Trader-facing natural language
Open page
Regime Monitor Table
Top-level cycle and valuation monitors summarized in a denser workbook-style view.
| Monitor | Instrument | Term | Current | Secondary | Signal | Trigger | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin Power Law Valuation Model | BTC | n/a | 116,320 | Target $200k by Oct 2025 | BUY | Power law floor support | Discord / Power Law |
Mayer Multiple Technical Market Phase | BTC | n/a | 1.10 | Spot 10.3% above 200DMA | HOLD | Buy near 0.8, sell near 2.4 | Coinbase public candles / internal calc |
Fear & Greed Index Sentiment | BTC | n/a | 54 | Greed | HOLD | 74+ extreme greed | CoinMarketCap / Glassnode |
200 day MA (28 weeks) Technical Market Phase | BTC | n/a | $70,093 | Spot 10.3% above 200DMA | BUY | Macro trend anchor | Coinbase public candles / internal calc |
Bitcoin Price vs Cost Basis Stack Market Phase | BTC | n/a | Spot above realised price / active-investor mean | Vaulted price 157,100 | HOLD | Watch spot versus realised price / STH cost basis | CheckOnChain |
Section
Market Regime
Cautious bullishness due to rising ETF inflows and stable liquidity, but watch for macro impacts.
Primary stance
Tactical / cautious bullish
cycle phase / valuation models / headline market stance
Primary sources
CheckOnChain
CheckOnChain, TradingView, Power Law model
Monitors
5
Tracked rows in this section
Buy Bias
2
Rows currently marked buy / constructive
Sell Risk
0
Rows currently marked sell / bearish
Watch
0
Rows currently flagged for monitoring
BTC / USDT
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Valuation Model
| Monitor | Instrument | Term | Current | Secondary | Signal | Trigger | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin Power Law Valuation Model Long-term valuation model tracking Bitcoin against the power-law trajectory and floor. | BTC | n/a | 116,320 | Target $200k by Oct 2025 | BUY | Power law floor support | Discord / Power Law |
Technical Market Phase
| Monitor | Instrument | Term | Current | Secondary | Signal | Trigger | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mayer Multiple Technical Market Phase Live regime monitor derived from Coinbase public BTC candles. | BTC | n/a | 1.10 | Spot 10.3% above 200DMA | HOLD | Buy near 0.8, sell near 2.4 | Coinbase public candles / internal calc |
200 day MA (28 weeks) Technical Market Phase Live regime monitor derived from Coinbase public BTC candles. | BTC | n/a | $70,093 | Spot 10.3% above 200DMA | BUY | Macro trend anchor | Coinbase public candles / internal calc |
Sentiment
| Monitor | Instrument | Term | Current | Secondary | Signal | Trigger | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fear & Greed Index Sentiment Market emotion gauge using volatility, momentum, dominance, and trend inputs. | BTC | n/a | 54 | Greed | HOLD | 74+ extreme greed | CoinMarketCap / Glassnode |
Market Phase
| Monitor | Instrument | Term | Current | Secondary | Signal | Trigger | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin Price vs Cost Basis Stack Market Phase Tracks BTC spot against vaulted price, realised price, true market mean, and STH cost basis to frame the cycle. | BTC | n/a | Spot above realised price / active-investor mean | Vaulted price 157,100 | HOLD | Watch spot versus realised price / STH cost basis | CheckOnChain |